Posted:
Okay, so I did this for 2015 as well. On December 30, 2014, I predicted that Bajrangi Bhaijaan would be the biggest grosser of 2015 in India, which is exactly what happened, as you can read here: https://www.indiaforums.com/forum/bollywood/4268595/my-big-box-office-predictions-for-2015. I also said that when 2015 is done, PK will remain the highest grosser of all time, which is also exactly the case. I am a bit late this time for writing what I feel will the biggest grosser of 2016, but we are only about a third way done the year, and there are another 8 months still remaining.
Before I write my prediction, I will post the top grossing film in India of each year from 2008 onwards:
2008: GHAJINI (Aamir Khan, Christmas)
2009: 3 IDIOTS (Aamir Khan, Christmas)
2010: DABANGG (Salman Khan, Eid)
2011: BODYGUARD (Salman Khan, Eid)
2012: EK THA TIGER (Salman Khan, Eid)
2013: DHOOM 3 (Aamir Khan, Christmas)
2014: PK (Aamir Khan, Christmas)
2015: BAJRANGI BHAIJAAN (Salman Khan, Eid)
Notice the trend? Every film has been a film starring either Salman Khan or Aamir Khan, and on either Christmas or Eid. This year, Salman has an Eid release again, while Aamir has a Christmas release again. The question is, which of the two films will be the biggest grosser of the year in India: SULTAN or DANGAL?
If SULTAN clashes with RAEES, then SULTAN's business will face a dent to some extent. However, after the failure of FAN, reports suggest that the clash is no longer going to happen. In all likelihood, SULTAN will enjoy a solo release date this Eid.
Therefore, in order to determine which film will be the biggest grosser of the year in India between the two leading candidates SULTAN and DANGAL, one major factor comes into play: Word of Mouth (public feedback).
SULTAN may have decent WOM, but I don't think it will be much higher than that. Director Ali Abbas Zafar's last film GUNDAY had WOM that was just good, not excellent. MERE BROTHER KI DULHAN did not have excellent WOM either. Truth be told, I think DANGAL will have better WOM than SULTAN. Let's face it, Aamir and Christmas is a combination that is simply unbeatable. When Aamir decides to release a film on Christmas, it means that it will be a universally-appealing film. His only non-Christmas release in recent years has been TALAASH, which was more of a darker, niche film. Aamir has already talked about how DANGAL is not just based on wrestling, but also based on women empowerment and has emotions dealing with father-daughter relationship, etc. Aamir puts his heart and soul into not just his performances, but also looks into the film-making process as well while being apart of a film.
I strongly feel that DANGAL have a better universal WOM than SULTAN, which is why I am predicting that DANGAL will be the biggest grosser of 2016 in India!
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