OPINION: Is ‘Raid 2’ a Box Office Hit or Just a Safe Franchise Bet?

Whenever the discourse around franchise films doing well or failing at the box office resurfaces—whenever people lament over the fatigue of sequel culture or moan about the remake formula being rinsed dry—there is always a set of handy examples tossed into the fray. Some are cited to showcase cautionary tales, others to underline unexpected success stories. Everyone has data points to argue with. But towering above all these examples, in his own enigmatic, poker-faced fashion, stands Ajay Devgn.

There is something disarmingly unfazed about how Devgn manoeuvres through this cinematic landscape—calmly dropping films left, right and centre, seemingly impervious to the noise. Some of these films arrive quietly, with little to no hullabaloo, only to later explode at the box office and shatter myths that had been comfortably cemented by trade pundits and online cinephiles alike. And while the ongoing conversation is about Raid 2, it would be remiss not to acknowledge that in a span of just eighteen months, Devgn has helmed not one but two fascinating case studies in this context.

Let us start with Shaitaan. Released in 2024, Shaitaan entered the cinematic bloodstream at a time when Bollywood was being actively scolded for its remake obsession. The industry was being told off for playing it too safe, for not trusting fresh stories and voices. And truth be told, the criticism wasn’t entirely unfair. But then, in came Shaitaan—a film that, on paper, was relatively modest. It didn’t carry the garb of an epic, nor did it try to pass itself off as a larger-than-life spectacle. Yet, despite its seemingly humble packaging, it ended up clocking nearly Rs 150 crores at the box office. The film defied logic, defied expectations, and perhaps most crucially, defied the prevailing perception that remakes were a doomed species.

What allows Raid 2 to succeed—despite the minor hiccup in its weekday numbers—is its fidelity to the spirit of its predecessor. The essence of Raid isn’t lost. We’re still rooted in the gripping world of high-stakes tax raids on the homes and businesses of powerful figures.

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And now, we arrive at Raid 2. If 2024 was the year where Devgn proved remakes could still work, 2025 appears to be the year where sequels come into sharp focus. Raid 2, a sequel to the critically appreciated and commercially successful Raid from 2018, has managed to keep up the momentum, earning an impressive ?79 crores within just five days of its release. Admittedly, Monday’s collection of ?7.75 crores was a noticeable dip from Sunday’s ?21 crores, but even so, the trajectory suggests a comfortable march towards the coveted 100 crore club. In today’s cinematic climate, where theatrical success has become a harder summit to climb, that’s no small feat.

However, to view Raid 2 solely through the lens of its earnings would be reductive. What makes this film’s performance particularly interesting is the context it exists within. You have a sequel with amplified stakes, bigger production value, and the intriguing dynamic of two beloved actors—Ajay Devgn and Riteish Deshmukh—locked in a battle of wits and intensity. The question, then, practically writes itself: Is the sequel formula still a safe bet?

Purely from a commercial standpoint, the answer would seem to be a resounding yes. The first installment did well, there’s brand recall, there’s audience affection carried over, and as a result, there’s already a footfall security net in place. For filmmakers and studios constantly wrestling with opening day anxieties and box office unpredictability, sequels can feel like the ultimate insurance policy.

The innocence of writing, the soul of character arcs, and the diligence of world-building are all at risk of being sacrificed at the altar of brand equity. The ‘taken-for-granted’ attitude that often creeps into sequel-making is what dilutes the very magic that made the original work.

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But here’s the twist: the audience has evolved. What was once a safety net can now unravel just as quickly if the film doesn't live up to the built-in expectations. Today’s viewers are swift to judge and quicker to move on. Yes, sequels still generate buzz and benefit from legacy goodwill, but if the Day 1 experience doesn’t land well, the damage is swift and merciless. As many have rightly observed, the audience’s capacity for forgiveness has shrunk dramatically.

What allows Raid 2 to succeed—despite the minor hiccup in its weekday numbers—is its fidelity to the spirit of its predecessor. The essence of Raid isn’t lost. We’re still rooted in the gripping world of high-stakes tax raids on the homes and businesses of powerful figures. More importantly, the central conflict, the cat-and-mouse interplay between Devgn and Deshmukh, is treated with nuance and gravitas. A clever touch that works particularly well here is the careful elevation of the antagonist. To truly empower the protagonist, the adversary must feel formidable—even if only temporarily. Raid 2 taps into this principle with precision.

Ajay Devgn’s longstanding affair with the crime thriller genre has undoubtedly bolstered this credibility. Whether it’s the chilling poise of Drishyam and Drishyam 2, the stylised bravado of Once Upon a Time in Mumbaai, the gritty realism of Company, or even a deeply personal film like Zakhm, Devgn has consistently anchored himself in narratives that deal with crime, consequence and moral murkiness. His signature brand of understated intensity—where silence often speaks louder than any monologue—continues to captivate his fan base.

However, this very success also raises a flag of concern. While Raid 2 may not end up being a record-shattering juggernaut, it will almost certainly do well enough to be deemed a "hit" by commercial standards. And therein lies the potential problem. Its success might reinforce the belief that sequels are a foolproof strategy. Cue the floodgates: an influx of sequels that exist not because there’s a compelling narrative left to explore, but simply because the market has shown a temporary appetite for familiarity.

This mindset leads to films being viewed as 'products' rather than stories. The innocence of writing, the soul of character arcs, and the diligence of world-building are all at risk of being sacrificed at the altar of brand equity. The ‘taken-for-granted’ attitude that often creeps into sequel-making is what dilutes the very magic that made the original work. The stakes become hollow, the writing turns lazy, and the audience—ever more alert and discerning—detects the bluff almost instantly.

So, this bluff isn't the sureshot roulette win that it once was and it is called out by the audiences, who are more exposed to content than ever not just from the country but from the global eye as well.

What amplifies Raid 2’s potential longevity at the box office is the strategic positioning of its release. The film has an almost vacant playing field in the coming weeks. Apart from Maddock Films’ Bhool Chuk Maaf dropping this week, there's little by way of direct competition. The mid-range slate—Suswagatam Khushaamadeed, Romeo S3, and Pune Highway on May 16th, followed by Kapkapiii, Kesari Veer, and Nikita Roy later in the month—doesn’t pose any significant threat. The only major roadblock Raid 2 might face is the arrival of Mission Impossible: The Final Reckoning on May 17th, which will naturally divert some attention. Still, barring a major upset, the Devgn-led film is expected to hold its own till Housefull 5 arrives in June.

In the final analysis, it boils down to one crucial takeaway—sequels should only be made when they deserve to exist. There must be a marriage between commerce and craft, between box office aspirations and storytelling integrity. That balance is difficult, elusive, and rare—but not impossible. Raid 2 walks that tightrope, not flawlessly, but with enough surefootedness to remind us why it’s still worth investing in cinema that knows what it’s doing.

Because at the end of the day, while sequels may sell tickets, it’s sincerity that brings people back for the third part.