Help me understand the box office of Indian films

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Posted: 2 months ago

https://twitter.com/SumitkadeI/status/1568885913643810816?s=20&t=eErtmzMPpeknmxB0IuXb-Q 


According to this tweet, they need about 250cr net collection for Brahmastra to get hit verdict then how come Raees which was made on budget of 127cr and collected 128cr is a semi-hit, according to box office India? 

Posted: 2 months ago

This is the Alia Bhatt’s math Astra in effect, people have no understanding of box office anymore. Movies have to earn MORE than their budget to be hits. But only in Brahmastra’s case (because of the math Astra) it can earn less and still be a hit 

Posted: 2 months ago

Standard practice in Hollywood of course is to include international collections and other revenues. But usually in India, films are declared a success/failure based on the domestic collections. By that logic, Brahmastra won't really be successful, similar to how Raees wasn't successful.

The industry knows this, but they don't want to send a doom and gloom signal for a film that is doing so well. So they are using the Hollywood method of overall gross and ancillary revenues. Whether that is just general brotherhood or a PR campaign, that's a different question. Disney would benefit largely from making this seem successful because that boosts Hotstar viewership numbers. And that drives the stock prices right now.

Regardless the most important thing is perception, these verdicts don't really matter.If the film makes a lot of money, people will think of it as a blockbuster. If it crashes on Monday, people will think of it as a flop. 

Edited by semantic.error - 2 months ago
Posted: 2 months ago

Originally posted by semantic.error


Standard practice in Hollywood of course is to include international collections and other revenues. But usually in India, films are declared a success/failure based on the domestic collections. By that logic, Brahmastra won't really be successful, similar to how Raees wasn't successful.

The industry knows this, but they don't want to send a doom and gloom signal for a film that is doing so well. So they are using the Hollywood method of overall gross and ancillary revenues. Whether that is just general brotherhood or a PR campaign, that's a different question. Disney would benefit largely from making this seem successful because that boosts Hotstar viewership numbers. And that drives the stock prices right now.

Regardless the most important thing is perception, these verdicts don't really matter.If the film makes a lot of money, people will think of it as a blockbuster. If it crashes on Monday, people will think of it as a flop. 

Interesting post, thanks. So most of this makes sense, but I’m still a bit confused. If we go with the most quoted budget around here of 410cr. Even if you include international collections, 2 days have grossed 160cr (ish), if you assume a good Sunday with similar numbers, it would still need to make another 170cr just to break even? And for that we would need to at least see how it performs during the week before declaring it a hit?

Posted: 2 months ago

Originally posted by sev.puri


Interesting post, thanks. So most of this makes sense, but I’m still a bit confused. If we go with the most quoted budget around here of 410cr. Even if you include international collections, 2 days have grossed 160cr (ish), if you assume a good Sunday with similar numbers, it would still need to make another 170cr just to break even? And for that we would need to at least see how it performs during the week before declaring it a hit?

Oh absolutely. Even at a worldwide gross of 410 Cr, that's not a comfortable success. You would ideally want the worldwide gross to be somewhere in the 1.5x-2x range. So 620 Cr or so is where it makes sense. The ideal thing would be to at-least wait for Monday. But clearly the industry is desperate and is latching onto any piece of good news they can find. Especially for a film like this, the money is in sequels and merchandising. That won't happen if the kids don't come back on Monday.

Side note, it also does depend on the revenue mix. Disney is well known for strong-arming larger shares for themselves with the film. So they may be getting more than the standard 50%, especially if they dangled Avatar to the exhibitors. But even still it is very far from making money. 

Posted: 2 months ago

It's always been perception for any KJo, Alia, and Ranbir film. All their movies are perceptually hit, whether they break even or not.

Posted: 2 months ago

A movie is a Hit when ROI is double and everyone involved makes profit.

 Brahmastra will be a profitable venture and they will make part 2.

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