Predicting a Box Office figure of Akshay Kumar starrer is as tough as predicting the business of Rowdy Rathore and Joker before the film releases. Yes Akshay Kumar is the same star which gave a Rowdy and Joker in short span of time. After that his last OMG surprised all against all odds and is a big hit of the year. As recently we have seen Akshay Kumar movies has huge variation in collections we are taking the safe route and will have prediction based on Average to Mixed Word of Mouth. So, let's start with the Box Office Collection Prediction of Khiladi786.
Khiladi 786 stars Akshay Kumar and Asin Thottumkal in lead roles. Akshay Kumar is having one of the best year of his life with Super Successes in Housefull 2, Rowdy Rathore and Oh My God. On the other his Housefull 2 co-star Asin is there and one can safely say that Asin is having the best success rate ever in Bollywood in her short span of stay in Tinsel Town. Many co-stars of Asin believes her as lucky charm. Also, Khiladi Kumar is promoting the movie extensively, that suggest its content is definitely better than Joker.
Economics of Khiladi 786 -
Budget - Around 45 crore (30 Production Cost + 15 for PA & Marketing). Not Confirmed, still actual should be in that range.
Amount Recovered Pre-Release. We are still to receive the exact Satelite Rights price, but it should be around 25-30 crore range (We will take median value of 27-28 crore). Music, Home Video and other rights should be at least 8-9 crore. So, we can assume that K786 has recovered around a minimum of 35-37 crore (Median value 36 crore) even before the release of the film. That means the makers have already recovered around 80% of total budget of the film before its release.
Amount need to be recovered for earning profit. For makers around 9 crore need to be recovered theatrically, which should be easily achieved during the first weekend.
Potential of Khiladi 786. With around 2786 screens it is one of the biggest release ever in
Indian Box Office history. If K786 gets ideally 100% occupancy it should get around 27-28 crore nett all India mark. But, realistically its should get an occupancy of 80-90% at max (which is very high for such wide release film), which will take its
Single Day potential to 23 crore nett all India mark. Since, it is releasing on normal day occupancy of 60% will be damn good.
Opening Day Prediction. Around 14-15 cr nett.
Opening Weekend (3 Day) Prediction.
If Accepted - 45-50 crore nett.
If Mixed - 35-45 crore nett.
If Rejected - <35 crore nett.
Opening Week (7 Day) Prediction.
If Accepted - 70+ crore nett.
If Average - 55-70 crore nett.
If Rejected - <55 crore nett.
Lifetime Collection Prediction.
If Accepted - 120+ crore nett.
If Average - 90-115 crore nett.
If Rejected - <80 crore nett.
Theatrical Verdict for Khiladi 786. Although K786 might have recovered majority (80%) of its cost from Satellite and other resources already before the film release. Still Theatrical verdict for any film is important for its
box office status. Lets evaluate.
We can easily assume that K786 should collect around 10 crore
distributor share from
Overseas. Hence, for Theatrical Hit it needs another 35 crore distributor share from India (Assuming Budget of K786 around 45 crore at the moment). For this K786 needs a
Lifetime collection of 70 crore nett for break even and anything above this is
Theatrical Hit, which will not be much of a difficult with good start. For Theatrical
Clean Hit it needs to recover all its amount from India Theatrical itself, that means a DS of 45 crore and above.
What Lifetime Collection needs to be for Khiladi 786 for Theatrical (HIT, Super HIT, Blockbuster or All Time Blockbuster) -
ATBB (All Time Blockbuster) - 175 cr nett+.
Blockbuster - 130-170 cr nett.
Super HIT - 105-125 cr nett.
HIT - 80-100 cr nett.
Average - 65-75 cr nett.
Flop - Below 60 cr nett.
Disaster - Below 50 cr nett.
AddaToday Prediction (Profits & Box Office) - K786 should collect around 100 cr nett in Lifetime (We have assumed content mixed as mentioned earlier). That means a
Distributor Share of 55 crore all India. Overseas distributor share should be around 12 crore. Total theatrical earnings 67 crore (India + Overseas). Total Amount Earned = Total Theatrical + (Satellite + Music + Other rights) = 67 + 36 = 103 crores.
AddaToday Final Verdict on Khiladi 786.
Profits - Total Amount Earned - Film Cost = 103 - 45 = Rs 58 crore of Profit
Box Office Verdict (Theatrical) -
Hit/Super Hit (100 crore nett all India). 
Indian Idol 16
Fan Fictions
2